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Coronavirus: How many new Covid-19 infections are there in my area and across England?




University of Cambridge statisticians have estimated the number of new coronavirus infections arising each day in England.

The latest results of their modelling, published on July 1, suggests that about 3,000 people a day are still being infected. There is 95 per cent confidence that the figure lies between 1,500 and 5,000.

The team, in the MRC Biostatistics Unit Covid-19 Working Group, predict that the number of deaths each day “is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July”.

Covid-19 virus (36858986)
Covid-19 virus (36858986)

Crucially, the researchers estimate that it is “very likely” that the R number, which records how many people a person with Covid-19 passes it on to, is below the crucial figure of 1, above which the virus can grow out of control.

The East of England, which covers West Norfolk, is estimated to have an R number of 0.78, the researchers say.

But with a local lockdown in place in Leicester, where cases have risen significantly, they note that the the Midlands has the highest probability (15%) of an R number above 1, although their central estimate for the region is 0.89.

The unit has also published data breaking down more than five million infections across England into regions, showing that the East of England has had more than half a million.

In terms of daily infections, the Midlands currently has by far the highest, with 1,030. The East of England has an estimated 181 daily.

The information from the Cambridge unit is fed directly to the SAGE sub-group advising the government, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M), and to regional Public Health England (PHE) teams.

Meanwhile, 36 areas have been highlighted as having week-on-week increases in coronavirus cases by Public Health England. There are none in Norfolk, but Suffolk is named. The full list is:

  • Barking and Dagenham
  • Brent
  • Derbyshire
  • Doncaster
  • Ealing
  • Enfield
  • Gateshead
  • Gloucestershire
  • Hammersmith and Fulham
  • Haringey
  • Harrow
  • Havering
  • Hounslow
  • Isle of Wight
  • Kensington and Chelsea
  • Leicester
  • Medway
  • Milton Keynes
  • Plymouth
  • Portsmouth
  • Redbridge
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • Richmond upon Thames
  • Sandwell
  • Slough
  • Suffolk
  • Sunderland
  • Tower Hamlets
  • Wakefield
  • Walsall
  • Wandsworth
  • Westminster
  • Wigan
  • Wiltshire
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • York

The number of Covid-19 deaths by area, to May 31, can be tracked using this interactive map.

Nationally, the number of lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 as of 4pm on June 30 was 312,654, with 689 confirmed on the day.

The official number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK stood at 43,730, although it is known that the actual death toll will be higher due to those who had not been tested, or not had Covid-19 named on their death certificate. A further 155 deaths were confirmed in the UK in the latest figures, although these daily numbers fluctuate according to when deaths are recorded.

As of June 29, in West Norfolk, there have been 688 confirmed cases, with a further 174 in North Norfolk and 296 in Breckland.

The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 people works out to 454.5 in West Norfolk, 166 in North Norfolk and 211.5 in Breckland.

The map shows that West Norfolk continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases, and confirmed cases per 100,000 people, in Norfolk.

The county's director for public health, Dr Louise Smith, spoke to the Lynn News about the possible explanations for this last month.

She said when the data is adjusted for the age distribution and deprivation profile, the rate is below the England average.

Dr Smith added that, as more testing of healthcare workers has been undertaken in the area, this could also explain why case numbers were high.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases, and cases per 100,000, can be tracked week on week by local authority area using these interactive maps.

Regionally, the East of England has fared better than most, as these graphs demonstrate.

Its total figures closely match those of Yorkshire and Humberside, while the figures on cases per 100,000 people show only the East Midlands and South West have fared better.



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