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Conservative wipe-out predicted across Norfolk including Liz Truss





The Conservatives are facing a total wipeout in Norfolk at next month’s election, with no MPs elected to Westminster for the first time in the party’s history, according to a shocking new poll.

The survey, by respected polling firm Survation, indicates a political revolution is under way in a region that has long been considered ‘true blue’.

It predicts that Norfolk and Waveney will return a total of eight Labour MPs, two from Reform and one Liberal Democrat.

Incumbent MP For South West Norfolk Liz Truss.
Incumbent MP For South West Norfolk Liz Truss.

Among the defeated Tories will be former prime minister Liz Truss, in South West Norfolk, and ex-science minister George Freeman, in Mid Norfolk, with the poll predicting they will see their respective majorities of 26,195 and 22,594 overturned.

Both constituencies have returned Tories for generations and the result, if it comes to pass, would be the first time since the Conservative party was formed after the Great Reform Act of 1832 that it has not had a single MP in the county.

Survation’s survey, which was published on June 15, is based on so-called MRP analysis, or multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis.

Incumbent MP for North West Norfolk James Wild
Incumbent MP for North West Norfolk James Wild

This is a modern modelling technique which combines very large polls with other sources of information, such as census data and local level of support for parties in the constituency.

The poll will make devastating reading for the Conservatives, who have struggled to close the gap in national polls since Rishi Sunak called the election.

Last month’s election for the Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner gave an early clue of their possible local fortunes after Labour topped its first county-wide poll in generations, with Sarah Taylor defeating Tory candidate Giles Orpen-Smellie.

The Survation survey predicts victories for Reform in Great Yarmouth, where Rupert Lowe is standing for the party, and North West Norfolk, for Phil Walton.

It suggests the Liberal Democrat Steffan Aquarone will take North Norfolk from Tory incumbent Duncan Baker.

However, the survey suggests the result will be extremely close in several Norfolk and Waveney seats, giving Conservatives hope that they may yet improve their fortunes.

SURVATION PREDICTION:

North West Norfolk – Reform

Labour: 26.7pc

Conservatives: 24.7pc

Liberal Democrats: 10pc

Green Party: 4.1pc

Reform: 34.5pc

Other: 0pc

South West Norfolk – Labour

Labour: 35.2pc

Conservatives: 33.5pc

Liberal Democrats: 5.3pc

Green Party: 6.8pc

Reform: 13.2pc

Other: 6.1pc

Mid-Norfolk – Labour

Labour: 36.9pc

Conservatives: 32.5pc

Liberal Democrats: 10.8pc

Green Party: 0.7pc

Reform: 19.1pc

Other: 0pc

Broadland and Fakenham – Labour

Labour: 33.6pc

Conservatives: 30.1pc

Liberal Democrats: 12.5pc

Green Party: 11.6pc

Reform: 12.3pc

Other: 0pc

North Norfolk – Liberal Democrats

Labour: 16.9pc

Conservatives: 29.2pc

Liberal Democrats: 31.5pc

Green Party: 0.5pc

Reform: 21.9pc

Other: 0pc

Great Yarmouth – Reform

Labour: 32.8pc

Conservatives: 25.4pc

Liberal Democrats: 2.8pc

Green Party: 3pc

Reform: 33.8pc

Other: 2.3pc

Lowestoft – Labour

Labour: 39.8pc

Conservatives: 26.9pc

Liberal Democrats: 7pc

Green Party: 4.1pc

Reform: 22.4pc

Other: 0pc

Waveney Valley – Labour

Labour: 30.1pc

Conservatives: 25.4pc

Liberal Democrats: 5.8pc

Green Party: 14.3pc

Reform: 22.7pc

Other: 1.8pc

South Norfolk – Labour

Labour: 33.8pc

Conservatives: 27.9pc

Liberal Democrats: 7.8pc

Green Party: 11.8pc

Reform: 17.5pc

Other: 1.3pc

Norwich North – Labour

Labour: 54.2pc

Conservatives: 25.1pc

Liberal Democrats: 3.3pc

Green Party: 5pc

Reform: 10.5pc

Other: 1.9pc

Norwich South – Labour

Labour: 53.1pc

Conservatives: 16.2pc

Liberal Democrats: 3.9pc

Green Party: 17.1pc

Reform: 6.6pc

Other: 3.1pc



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